Daily Spotlight: Gold Prices Near Peak

Summary

When global economic conditions become unpredictable, investors often flock to gold. The yellow metal is trading above $2,100 per ounce. During the first phase of the pandemic, the spot price for an ounce of gold jumped 33% in six months and broke through the $2,000 level. Gold spot prices also spiked above $2,000 in early March 2022 due to the war in Ukraine, and are now at similarly high levels as tension simmers in the Middle East. The current price of gold reflects the perceived safety of hard assets amid the global conflicts, as well as lower U.S. interest rates that tend to weaken the dollar, which is the currency in which gold is priced. The outlook for Federal Reserve rate cuts also helps gold, as lower rates reduce the risk for a global economic recession and thus a potential decline in gold purchased for jewelry. Looking ahead, our forecast trading range for gold in 2024 is $2,200-$1,700, and our average forecast for the year is $2,000. This compares to average gold prices of $1,960 in 2023, $1,873 in 2022, $1,806 in 2021, $1781 in 2020, $1,400 in 2019, $1,265 in 2018, $1,277 in 2017, $1,258 in 2016 and $1,155 in 2015. As long as geopolitics and global economic uncertainty are part of the market conversation, gold is likely to remain at levels well above the historical averages of $1,120 since 2000 and $1,485 since 2010.